Age structure: adolescents, the demographic dividend and ageing

Detail

1. What "age structure" means

• Age structure means how a population is split into age groups. The three main groups are:
• children (0-14 years);
• working-age people (15-64 years in the dependency ratio; 15-59 in many Indian data sets);

• the elderly (60+ in India's definition; 65+ in the dependency ratio).

• Census 2011: about 31% of Indians were under 15, and 8.6% were 60 or older.

• India's age structure is changing:
• Cause: birth rates fell first in the south, then across the country.
• Process: each new group of children is smaller than the one before. Earlier, larger groups of children grow up into adults.

• Result: the share of working-age people rises first. Later the share of elderly people rises.

• Census 2027 will produce the next full age data for India.

• Reference date: 00:00 hours, 1 March 2027. For Ladakh and the snow-bound areas of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, it is 1 October 2026 [5][6].
• Phase I, the Houselisting and Housing Census (HLO), ran from April to September 2026 [6].
• Phase II, Population Enumeration, is due in February 2027 (September 2026 in the snow-bound areas) [6].
• It is India's first digital census. People can also fill in their own details online (self-enumeration), and castes will be counted in Phase II [5][6].

2. Adolescents (10-19 years)

• Adolescent population means people aged 10-19 years.
• Census 2011: 20.9% of Indians were adolescents. Of these, 52.7% were male and 47.3% were female.
• This group has great potential. Well-trained adolescents become a skilled future workforce.

• It is also a vulnerable group, meaning it can easily be harmed or exploited.

• Main problems faced by adolescents:

Area	Problems
Education	Illiteracy, especially among girls; dropping out of school
Marriage and health	Low age at marriage; low nutrient intake (poor diet); high maternal mortality (mothers dying during pregnancy or childbirth) among adolescent mothers
Disease and disability	HIV/AIDS; physical and mental disability
Social risks	Drug abuse and alcoholism; delinquency (young people breaking the law) and crime

• Why girls face more harm:
• Early marriage stops a girl's schooling.
• Early pregnancy follows, often before her body is fully grown.
• The result is higher death and illness among young mothers, and weaker babies.

3. Policy responses for youth

• National Youth Policy 2014 (launched February 2014):
• Vision: "to empower the youth of the country to achieve their full potential, and through them enable India to find its rightful place in the community of nations".

• It defines youth as people aged 15-29 years. (Do not confuse this with adolescents, who are 10-19.)

• National Policy for Skill Development and Entrepreneurship 2015:

• It brings all skilling (job training) programmes under one framework.

• It links training to demand centres, meaning the places and sectors where jobs actually exist.

• Youth jobs data: the unemployment rate for youth (15-29 years), in usual status, fell to 9.9% in 2025 from 10.3% in 2024 [7].

• Urban youth: 13.6% (2025).
• Rural youth: 8.3% (2025) [7].
• Joblessness among young people in cities is still high.

4. Dependency ratio

• Dependency ratio means the number of dependants (people under 15 plus people aged 65+) for every 100 people of working age (15-64).
• Formula: [(population 0-14 + population 65+) ÷ population 15-64] × 100.

• It has two parts:

  • Child (young) dependency ratio: 0-14 per 100 aged 15-64.
  • Old-age dependency ratio: 65+ per 100 aged 15-64.

• India's trend:

• Child dependency is falling because birth rates are low.
• Old-age dependency is rising because people live longer.

• Old-age dependency is rising fastest in the southern states, where birth rates fell earliest.

• Spatial contrast:

Feature	Southern states (e.g. Kerala, Tamil Nadu)	Northern Hindi-belt states (e.g. Bihar, Uttar Pradesh)
When birth rates fell	Earlier	Later
Main type of dependency	Rising old-age dependency	High child dependency
Dividend stage	Window narrowing; ageing has started	Working-age share still growing; dividend still ahead

5. Demographic dividend

• Demographic dividend means the extra economic growth possible when the working-age share of the population is large and the dependent share is small.
• How it works:
• Fewer children per family means each household spends less on dependants.
• More adults of working age means more workers, more income and more savings.

• More savings lead to more investment, which leads to faster growth.

• India's window: it opened around 2005 and may last until about 2055.

• The dividend is not automatic. It pays off only with:
• jobs, enough of them and in the formal sector;
• skills that match the jobs on offer;
• good health and nutrition;

• more women in paid work.

• Women's work (PLFS, Periodic Labour Force Survey):

• Female LFPR (Labour Force Participation Rate: the share of people who are working or looking for work) rose from 23.3% in 2017-18 to 41.7% in 2023-24 [8].
• It was 40.0% in 2025 [7].

• The LFPR for all persons aged 15+ was 59.3% in 2025 [7].

• Risk: if young people do not find jobs, the dividend becomes a "demographic burden". A large number of unemployed or poorly paid young people puts strain on society. See employment-informal-sector.

6. Ageing

• India Ageing Report 2023 was prepared by UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund) and IIPS (International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai). It was released in September 2023 [2].
• The share of people aged 60+ will rise from about 10% (2021) to over 20% by 2050.
• That is about 346 million people, nearly 21% of the population, in 2050 [2].
• The elderly population is growing by about 41% per decade [2].
• By 2046 the elderly are likely to outnumber children (0-15 years) [2].

• The 80+ population may grow by about 279% between 2022 and 2050 [2].

• Where India is ageing:

• Kerala, Tamil Nadu and other southern states are ageing fastest.

• Most southern states, plus Himachal Pradesh and Punjab in the north, had a higher share of elderly than the national average in 2021. This gap is expected to widen by 2036 [2].

• Feminisation of ageing means that most elderly people, especially the very old, are women, because women live longer than men.

• Many are widows. The report warns of many widowed and highly dependent very old women [2].

• These women often have no income of their own, no pension and little property.

• Policy responses:

• Pensions, old-age income support.
• Geriatric care (medical care for the elderly).
• The Maintenance and Welfare of Parents and Senior Citizens Act 2007. It makes children and heirs legally responsible for maintaining their elderly parents.
• Ayushman Bharat PM-JAY was extended to everyone aged 70+, whatever their income. The extension was announced on 29 October 2024 [3].
  • It gives ₹5 lakh per year of free hospital treatment through the Ayushman Vay Vandana card [3][4].

7. Method link: the age-sex pyramid

• An age-sex pyramid is a graph that shows a population's age groups as horizontal bars. Males are on the left and females on the right. See world-population and data-representation-thematic-maps.

Pyramid shape	What it shows	Stage
Expanding: wide base, narrow top	High births, many children	Fast-growing population (India in earlier censuses)
Constant / bell-shaped: base and middle similar	Births and deaths both low and steady	Stable population
Declining: narrow base, wide top	Few births, many elderly	Ageing population (the direction of Kerala and Tamil Nadu)

• India's pyramid is changing from expanding to bell-shaped: the base is narrowing and the middle bulge is growing. That middle bulge is the demographic dividend.

Prelims Hooks

• Adolescent = 10-19 years. Youth (National Youth Policy 2014) = 15-29 years. This is a common trap.
• Adolescents were 20.9% of India's population in Census 2011 (52.7% male, 47.3% female).
• Census 2011: about 31% were under 15 and 8.6% were 60+.
• Dependency ratio = (0-14 + 65+) per 100 people aged 15-64.
• India's demographic dividend window: about 2005 to 2055.
• India Ageing Report 2023 = UNFPA + IIPS. It projects the 60+ share at over 20% (about 346 million) by 2050 [2].
• Elderly share above the national average (2021): southern states, plus Himachal Pradesh and Punjab [2].
• Ayushman Vay Vandana card: 70+, any income, ₹5 lakh per year (2024) [3].
• Census 2027 reference date: 1 March 2027; for snow-bound areas, 1 October 2026. It is the first digital census and includes caste enumeration [5][6].
• Senior Citizens Act = 2007. Skill Development and Entrepreneurship Policy = 2015.

Mains Points

• Demographic dividend or burden (GS-I/GS-III):
• India's window is about 2005-2055. The dividend depends on jobs, skills, health and women's work.
• Urban youth unemployment was 13.6% in 2025 [7].
• Female LFPR has risen, but it is still low: 40.0% in 2025 [7].

• Without formal jobs, the bulge becomes a "demographic burden".

• Regional mismatch:

• The south (Kerala, Tamil Nadu) is ageing and its old-age dependency is rising.
• The north (Bihar, Uttar Pradesh) is still young.

• This has consequences for migration from north to south, for labour supply, and for how central taxes are shared between states.

• Adolescent vulnerability:

• Early marriage, female illiteracy, dropout, poor nutrition and adolescent maternal mortality hold back human capital.

• Responses: National Youth Policy 2014 and the Skill Development and Entrepreneurship Policy 2015.

• Feminised, very old elderly:

• The 80+ group may grow by about 279% (2022-2050), and many of them will be widowed women [2].
• India needs pensions, geriatric care, the 2007 Act and health cover for everyone aged 70+ under PM-JAY (2024) [3].