Statistical methods are no substitute for common sense
Also called: Misuse of averages · Topic: Economic Data: Census, NSS, Surveys and Statistical Tools · NCERT: Class 11, Ch 1 "Introduction (Statistics for Economics)"; Class 11, Ch 6 "Correlation"
Meaning
This principle says statistical results must be read with judgement. A number used alone can mislead. An average in particular hides the spread of the data, which is how far values move away from the typical value. So an average should be read together with a measure of spread, and correlation should not be taken as proof of cause.
Example
A family of four knew a river's average depth. It was less than the family's average height, so they tried to cross. The children drowned, because parts of the river were much deeper than the average and the children were shorter than the average height.
Don't confuse with
- Spurious correlation: this is a specific trap where two variables move together without one causing the other. The common-sense principle is the wider warning against misusing any statistical result.
Related concepts
- Statistics
- Economic data
- Economic analysis
- Economic policy
- Quantitative data
- Qualitative data
- Statistical prediction
- Project report
- Target group