El Nino: 111 districts in 12 States of ‘primary concern’

Excellent — I now have strong Tier 1 (PIB / IMD) facts. Writing the study note.

El Niño 2026 — 111 Districts in 12 States of 'Primary Concern'

UPSC Prelims + Mains Study Note

1. At a Glance

• El Niño is a periodic warming of the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that suppresses the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), causing below-normal southwest monsoon (SWM) rainfall over India. [S1]
• ENSO is transitioning from neutral to El Niño conditions in 2026; IMD has forecast SWM seasonal rainfall at ~90% of Long Period Average (LPA) — classified as below normal. [S2]
• The Union Agriculture Ministry has identified 315 vulnerable districts, of which 111 districts across 12 States are of primary concern owing to irrigation coverage below 25%, making them almost entirely rain-fed. [S1]
• Critically important for GS-I (Climate), GS-III (Agriculture, Disaster Management), and Essay paper.

2. Why in the News

• June 2026: Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan convened a high-level meeting with State Agriculture Ministers, District Collectors of vulnerable districts, IMD officials, and ICAR experts on the impending El Niño-driven monsoon deficit. [S1][S3]
• As of meeting date, cumulative SWM rainfall was ~43% below normal, with IMD forecasting continued weak rainfall at least through the week ending July 2, 2026. [S3]
• Southwest monsoon delay is directly threatening Kharif 2026 sowing season in rain-fed regions. [S3]

3. Background & Evolution

• El Niño was first scientifically described in the 19th century; the term was coined by Peruvian fishermen noting warm coastal waters around Christmas ("El Niño" = The Christ Child).
• ENSO teleconnection with Indian monsoon — established through long-term IMD records; inverse relationship between El Niño intensity and ISM rainfall is well-documented since the late 19th century. [S4]
• District Agriculture Contingency Plans (DACPs): Institutionalised by the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare as a pre-El Niño preparedness tool; evolved post the severe drought years of 2002, 2009, and 2015-16.
• 2015-16 El Niño — one of the strongest on record — caused two consecutive drought years in India; led to strengthened DACP framework and the Crop Weather Watch Group. [S1]
• 2023 El Niño (moderate-to-strong): Led to below-normal SWM 2023, formation of monitoring cells at national level; that institutional infrastructure is now being reactivated for 2026. [S1]

4. Core Static Facts

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Economic

• Kharif contributes ~50% of India's annual foodgrain production; a 43% rainfall deficit during critical sowing window threatens food security and rural income. [S3]
• Rain-fed agriculture covers ~55% of India's net sown area — the 111 primary-concern districts (irrigation < 25%) are the most exposed to input-cost losses without yield. [S1]
• Poor Kharif output triggers input demand collapse (seeds, fertilisers), ripple effects on MSP procurement, and pressure on food inflation. [S3]

Social

• The 111 high-priority districts are largely tribal, dryland-farming, and economically backward zones where farmers have negligible irrigation access and low adaptive capacity. [S1]
• Crop failure in rain-fed areas historically drives distress migration and farm debt, with disproportionate impact on marginal and small farmers (< 2 hectares). [S1]
• Women farmers in rain-fed tracts bear a heavier burden — responsible for subsistence crop management with no formal credit buffer.

Environmental

• El Niño years correlate with reduced groundwater recharge due to deficit monsoon rainfall, worsening long-term water stress in already over-exploited aquifers in peninsular and central India. [S4]
• Soil moisture deficit during Kharif planting window can increase soil erosion vulnerability in rain-fed uplands when rainfall arrives in intense, short bursts (also an El Niño signature).
• El Niño also associated with elevated fire risk in forests and suppressed cyclone activity in Bay of Bengal, altering the overall hydro-meteorological balance. [S4]

Scientific / Technological

• Niño 3.4 SST monitoring: IMD uses coupled ocean-atmosphere models (e.g., MME — Multi-Model Ensemble) to forecast ENSO state and SWM seasonal rainfall. [S2]
• DACPs prescribe scientifically calibrated alternatives: short-duration varieties, contingency crops (e.g., cluster bean, bajra in place of longer-duration kharif crops), and micro-irrigation deployment. [S1]
• ICAR's NICRA (National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture) programme provides the scientific backbone for district-level adaptation strategies under DACPs. [S1]

Administrative / Governance

• Three-tier coordination: Centre (MoAFW + IMD) → State Agriculture Departments → District Collectors — with 315 district-specific contingency plans mandating each DM to hold crisis preparedness reviews. [S1]
• The El Niño Monitoring Cell (New Delhi) functions as a real-time dashboard integrating rainfall, sowing data, input supply chain, and market indicators. [S1]
• Federalism tension: Agriculture is a State subject (Entry 14, List II, 7th Schedule) — Centre's role is advisory, financial (NDRF, SDRF) and technical; actual implementation rests with States. [S1]

Historical

• India has experienced El Niño-linked droughts in 1877, 1899, 1918, 1972, 1982, 1987, 2002, 2009, 2014-15, 2023 — showing decadal regularity. [S4]
• The 2002 drought (El Niño year) reduced foodgrain production by ~29 million tonnes; the 2009 drought caused the worst single-year agricultural GDP contraction in two decades.
• Post-2009, India institutionalised DACPs as a mandatory pre-crisis instrument for every climatically vulnerable district.

6. Recent Developments (last 12–18 months)

• May 2026: IMD released Updated Long-Range Forecast for SWM 2026, projecting 90% of LPA (below normal); flagged emerging El Niño signal in equatorial Pacific. [S2]
• June 2026: Union Agriculture Minister Chouhan convened high-level national meeting with all State Agriculture Ministers, senior officials, DCs of 315 vulnerable districts, ICAR and IMD representatives. [S1][S3]
• June 2026: Rainfall reported at ~43% below normal as of the meeting date; IMD extended weak-rainfall forecast to at least July 2, 2026. [S3]
• June 2026: Centre directed all 315 vulnerable districts to activate District Agriculture Contingency Plans (DACPs) immediately; States directed to set up control rooms and appoint nodal officers. [S1]
• June 2026: Government stated it is "not waiting for a crisis" and preparing in advance — signalling a proactive rather than reactive disaster management approach. [S3]

7. Prelims Hooks

1. El Niño is defined by SST anomalies > +0.5°C in the Niño 3.4 region (central-eastern equatorial Pacific) for ≥5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. [S4]
2. IMD (under Ministry of Earth Sciences) is India's nodal agency for monsoon forecasting and ENSO monitoring — not Ministry of Agriculture. [S2]
3. India's 2026 SWM forecast: 90% of LPA — classified as "below normal" (LPA = 868.6 mm for 1971–2020 base period). [S2]
4. 315 districts have been identified as vulnerable to weak monsoon in 2026; 111 of these (in 12 States) are categorised as primary concern. [S1]
5. Primary concern districts are those with irrigation coverage below 25% — making them dependent almost entirely on monsoon rainfall. [S1]
6. 76 districts are medium priority (irrigation 25–50%); 128 districts are low priority (irrigation >50%). [S1]
7. The El Niño Monitoring Cell and Crop Weather Watch Group are constituted at the national level in New Delhi — not at IMD headquarters specifically. [S1]
8. Agriculture is a State subject under Entry 14, List II (State List), 7th Schedule of the Constitution — Centre's role in crisis is advisory and financial. [S1]
9. ICAR (Indian Council of Agricultural Research) provides technical guidance on contingency cropping under DACPs — distinct from IMD's meteorological role. [S1]
10. The NICRA programme (National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture) is ICAR's flagship scheme for climate-adaptive agriculture. [S1]
11. Kharif crops are sown in June–July and harvested in September–October; the 43% rainfall deficit during the sowing window directly imperils Kharif 2026. [S3]
12. The El Niño of 2015-16 was one of the strongest on record and caused two consecutive drought years in India, prompting the institutionalisation of DACPs. [S1]
13. District Agriculture Contingency Plans (DACPs) are district-specific documents incorporating local climatic conditions, cropping patterns, water resources, and risk mitigation strategies. [S1]

8. Mains Relevance

Plausible Mains Questions:

1. "El Niño poses an asymmetric threat to Indian agriculture. Critically analyse the structural vulnerabilities exposed by the 2026 monsoon deficit and evaluate the adequacy of the government's contingency planning framework." (GS-III)

2. "Discuss the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Summer Monsoon. What institutional mechanisms has India developed to manage El Niño-induced agrarian distress?" (GS-I/GS-III)

3. "Agriculture being a State subject, the Central government's role in drought preparedness is inherently limited. Comment, with reference to India's District Agriculture Contingency Plans and federal coordination mechanisms." (GS-II/GS-III)

9. Related Topics to Study Next

10. Common Errors / Trap Areas

1. Wrong ministry for monsoon forecasting: IMD is under Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), not the Ministry of Agriculture. Agriculture contingency planning (DACPs) = Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare. Confusing the two is a common trap.

2. "El Niño always causes drought in India": Incorrect. El Niño increases the probability of below-normal monsoon but does not guarantee drought every year (e.g., 1997-98 strong El Niño, yet India had normal monsoon partly due to +IOD offset).

3. Niño region confusion: El Niño is defined using Niño 3.4 (central-eastern Pacific) — not Niño 1+2 (extreme eastern Pacific). Examiners occasionally test this.

4. Confusing 315 and 111: 315 = total vulnerable districts; 111 = primary concern (irrigation < 25%); 76 = medium (25–50%); 128 = low (>50%). These numbers are individually testable.

5. Agriculture as Central vs State subject: Agriculture is firmly a State subject (List II); confusing it with Concurrent List is a recurring error. Centre's drought relief role operates through NDRF/SDRF transfers, not direct command over State agriculture departments.

11. Sources

• [S1] "Centre Reviews Kharif Preparedness Amid El Niño Concerns; Shivraj Singh Chouhan Holds High-Level Meeting with States" — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2277178 — (Tier 1: pib.gov.in)
• [S2] "Updated Long Range Forecast for the Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall during June–September, 2026 and Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Outlook for June 2026" — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2266479 — (Tier 1: pib.gov.in)
• [S3] "El Niño: 111 districts in 12 States of 'primary concern'" — The Hindu, June 24, 2026 — https://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/2026-06-24/th_international/articleGLPG5FRA5-15076237.ece — (Tier 4: thehindu.com; Article excerpt supplied by user)
• [S4] "Parliament Question: El Niño Effect on Monsoon and Rainfall" — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2083268 — (Tier 1: pib.gov.in)