Thermal (coal and lignite) Installed Capacity Requirement Estimated at 3,07,000 MW by 2024-35

1. At a Glance

CEA's Generation Expansion Planning Study projects India needs ~3,07,000 MW of coal/lignite thermal capacity by 2034-35, against 2,11,855 MW installed as on 31.03.2023 [S1].
Ministry of Power has envisaged additional minimum 97,000 MW of coal/lignite-based thermal capacity to bridge the gap [S1].
Reflects continued reliance on base-load thermal despite the 500 GW non-fossil by 2030 pledge — examinable under energy security, climate trade-offs, and power-sector planning.

PIB release dated 09 Feb 2026 by Ministry of Power formalised the 3,07,000 MW thermal requirement projection for 2034-35 [S1].
Comes alongside the Draft National Electricity Policy (NEP) 2026 [S4] and the CEA Long-Term National Resource Adequacy Plan 2026-27 to 2035-36 (March 2026) [S2].

Central Electricity Authority (CEA) — statutory body under Section 70 of the Electricity Act, 2003 — conducts generation-expansion planning for least-cost optimal mix [S1].
National Electricity Plan (NEP) 2022-32 notified by CEA in May 2023 projected installed capacity of 9,00,422 MW by 2031-32 (Coal 2,59,643 MW; Gas 24,824 MW; Nuclear 19,680 MW; RE 5,96,275 MW) [S3].
Coal share in installed capacity projected to fall from ~49% (2023) to 38.4% by Mar 2027 and 28.7% by Mar 2032; coal-generation share to drop to 49.9% by 2031-32 [S3][S5].
The Feb 2026 projection (3,07,000 MW by 2034-35) extends the planning horizon three years beyond NEP 2022-32's 2,59,643 MW coal figure for 2031-32.

Topic title: Thermal (coal+lignite) capacity requirement by 2034-35 = ~3,07,000 MW [S1].
Baseline: 2,11,855 MW installed thermal (coal+lignite) as on 31.03.2023 [S1].
Additional capacity envisaged: 97,000 MW (minimum) of coal & lignite [S1].
Already commissioned (Apr 2023 – 31.01.2026): ~18,160 MW [S2].
Under construction: 38,745 MW (incl. 4,845 MW stressed projects); 22,920 MW contracts awarded; 24,020 MW candidate capacity in planning [S2].
Parent ministry: Ministry of Power (Union Govt.) [S1].
Planning body: Central Electricity Authority (CEA) — statutory under Electricity Act, 2003 [S1].
Parameters in study: capital cost, fuel cost, O&M cost, useful life, demand projections [S1].

Economic: Coal remains lowest-cost firm base-load; 97 GW addition implies huge capex, coal-linkage demand, and rail/port logistics; supports thermal PSU revenues (NTPC, DVC, NLCIL) [S1].
Environmental: Higher coal fleet conflicts with India's Panchamrit pledges (500 GW non-fossil by 2030; net-zero by 2070); justified by CEA on resource-adequacy & grid reliability grounds since RE is intermittent [S1][S3].
Strategic / Energy Security: Coal hedges import dependence in gas/nuclear; cushions against RE intermittency until storage (PSP 26,686 MW + BESS) matures [S3].
Legal/Constitutional: Electricity is in Concurrent List (Entry 38); CEA's mandate flows from Sec. 70, Electricity Act, 2003; NEP under Sec. 3 of the same Act [S1].
Administrative: Centre plans capacity; States execute via gencos/IPPs; Resource Adequacy Plans mandatory for each State per CEA (e.g., Telangana RAP up to 2034-35) [S2].

09 Feb 2026 — PIB/Ministry of Power release announcing 3,07,000 MW by 2034-35 and 97,000 MW additional coal/lignite [S1].
March 2026 — CEA published Long-Term National Resource Adequacy Plan (2026-27 to 2035-36) [S2].
2026 — Draft National Electricity Policy (NEP) 2026 floated by Ministry of Power [S4].
Jan 2026 cumulative: 18,160 MW commissioned since Apr 2023; 38,745 MW under construction [S2].

Projected thermal (coal+lignite) requirement by 2034-35: 3,07,000 MW [S1].
Installed thermal capacity as on 31.03.2023: 2,11,855 MW [S1].
Additional coal/lignite envisaged: 97,000 MW (minimum) [S1].
Planning agency: Central Electricity Authority (CEA), not NITI Aayog [S1].
CEA derives statutory power from Section 70, Electricity Act, 2003 [S1].
NEP 2022-32 notified by CEA in May 2023 [S3].
Coal share in installed capacity to fall to 28.7% by Mar 2032 [S3].
Total installed capacity projected at 9,00,422 MW by 2031-32 [S3].
Non-fossil share to rise from 42.5% (Apr 2023) to 68.4% by 2031-32 [S3].
Electricity falls under Concurrent List, Entry 38 of Seventh Schedule.
NLCIL (Neyveli Lignite Corp.) is the principal lignite-based generator (CPSE under Ministry of Coal).
CEA Resource Adequacy Plan covers 2026-27 to 2035-36 [S2].

GS-III — Infrastructure: Energy; Environment & Climate Change; Economic Development.
Possible stems: 1. "Despite India's 500 GW non-fossil pledge by 2030, CEA projects an additional 97 GW coal-based capacity by 2034-35. Critically examine the tension between energy security and climate commitments." (15 marks) 2. "Discuss the role of the Central Electricity Authority in generation-expansion planning under the Electricity Act, 2003." (10 marks) 3. "Examine why thermal power continues to be indispensable to India's power mix even as renewables scale up." (15 marks)

National Electricity Plan (NEP) 2022-32 — sister CEA document setting capacity targets [S3].
Electricity Act, 2003 — statutory framework for CEA, CERC, NEP.
Panchamrit pledges (COP-26) — climate context for coal decisions.
500 GW non-fossil target by 2030 — RE counterpart [S3].
PM-KUSUM, SECI, RUMSL — RE deployment vehicles.
Pumped Storage Plants (PSP) & BESS — intermittency hedges for RE-heavy grid.
NTPC, NLCIL, DVC — main thermal CPSEs executing capacity addition.
Carbon Markets / CCTS — emissions-pricing instrument relevant to coal lock-in.

3,07,000 MW is requirement by 2034-35, NOT the additional capacity; the addition is 97,000 MW.
CEA ≠ CERC: CEA plans capacity (advisory + statutory under Sec. 70); CERC regulates tariffs (Sec. 76).
Baseline of 2,11,855 MW is as on 31.03.2023, not 2024 or 2026.
Lignite is included with coal in this projection — don't treat as separate.
NEP 2022-32 figures (2,59,643 MW coal by 2031-32) differ from the 2034-35 projection (3,07,000 MW); horizons differ.
Electricity is Concurrent, not Union List.

[S1] Thermal (coal and lignite) Installed Capacity Requirement Estimated at 3,07,000 MW by 2024-35 — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2225430 — (tier: 1)
[S2] Power Supply, Peak Demand and Availability of Coal (PIB) & CEA Long-Term Resource Adequacy Plan 2026-27 to 2035-36 — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2246901 ; https://cea.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/notification/2026/04/Long_term_National_Resource_Adeqaucy_Plan2026_27_to_2035_36.pdf — (tier: 1)
[S3] CEA notifies National Electricity Plan 2022-32 — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1928750 — (tier: 1)
[S4] Draft National Electricity Policy (NEP) 2026 — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2216661 — (tier: 1)
[S5] CEA Study: coal generation share to fall to 49.9% by 2031-32 — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1907720 — (tier: 1)