PARLIAMENT QUESTION: MONSOON FORECAST ACCURACY AND IMPROVEMENTS

I have enough grounded facts. Writing the note now.

PARLIAMENT QUESTION: MONSOON FORECAST ACCURACY AND IMPROVEMENTS — UPSC Study Note

1. At a Glance

• IMD's seasonal southwest monsoon forecast has remained within its ±4% model error band for three consecutive years (2023–25), with average absolute error of 1.9% of LPA [S1].
• Accuracy gains are driven by the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) strategy (introduced 2021) and Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) run by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) [S3].
• Forecast credibility underpins agricultural planning, disaster management and food-inflation policy — high UPSC salience in GS-I (geography) and GS-III (S&T, agriculture, DM).

2. Why in the News

• PIB / MoES reply, 12 Feb 2026 in Parliament tabulated IMD's seasonal monsoon forecast accuracy for 2023–2025, confirming all three years were within forecast limits [S1].
• Coincides with rollout of Mission Mausam (Cabinet approval 11 Sep 2024, ₹2,000 crore, phased till 2031) [S2].

3. Background & Evolution

• India Meteorological Department (IMD) established 1875; parent ministry: MoES [S2].
• Monsoon Mission launched 2012 by MoES to develop a dynamical prediction system; led to the MMCFS (coupled ocean–atmosphere model) [S3].
• Operational Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach adopted in 2021, combining MMCFS with other global Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCMs) [S3].
• Mission Mausam approved September 2024, with outlay ₹2,000 crore over two years and phased implementation till 2031 [S2].

4. Core Static Facts

• Implementing ministry: Ministry of Earth Sciences (not MoEFCC, not Agriculture) [S1][S2].
• Three nodal institutes for Mission Mausam: IMD, IITM (Pune), NCMRWF (Noida) [S2].
• Supporting MoES institutes: INCOIS, NCPOR, NIOT [S2].
• LPA (Long Period Average) for All-India Southwest Monsoon (Jun–Sep) rainfall is the reference baseline; classification — Deficient (<90%), Below Normal (90–95%), Normal (96–104%), Above Normal (105–110%), Excess (>110%).
• Forecast performance table [S1]: | Year | Actual (% LPA) | Forecast (% LPA) | Model Error | |------|----------------|------------------|-------------| | 2023 | 95 | 96 | ±4 | | 2024 | 108 | 106 | ±4 | | 2025 | 108 | 106 | ±4 |
• Average absolute error 2023–25: 1.9% of LPA [S1].
• MME-era (2021–24) average error: 2.28% of LPA vs 7.5% in 2017–20 [S3].
• Mission Mausam infrastructure targets: 50 Doppler Weather Radars, 60 Radiosonde/Radiowind stations, 100 disdrometers, 10 wind profilers, 25 radiometers, 1 urban testbed, 1 process testbed, 1 ocean research station, 10 marine AWS [S2].

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Scientific / Technological - Shift from statistical to dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling (MMCFS) and now MME of CGCMs [S3]. - Mission Mausam adds high-resolution DWR network, radiosondes, disdrometers for assimilation [S2].

Economic - Agriculture (~46% of workforce) and rainfed area (~51% of net sown area) depend on monsoon — forecast accuracy feeds MSP, sowing, reservoir, and inflation policy. - ₹2,000 crore Mission Mausam outlay is preventive investment vs disaster losses [S2].

Administrative / Governance - Single-window MoES delivery via IMD–IITM–NCMRWF triad; collaboration with national/international academia and industry [S2]. - Phased rollout to 2031 signals long-cycle capacity building [S2].

Environmental / Climate - Rising extreme rainfall events and climate variability raise demand for sub-seasonal and spatial forecasts; MME shows skill in spatial distribution [S3].

6. Recent Developments (last 12-18 months)

• 11 Sep 2024: Cabinet approves Mission Mausam, ₹2,000 crore [S2].
• April 2025: IMD's first-stage LRF forecasts SW Monsoon at 105% of LPA (Above Normal) [S3].
• 2025 season: Actual rainfall 108% of LPA, within forecast ±4% [S1].
• 12 Feb 2026: MoES tables monsoon forecast accuracy data in Parliament [S1].

7. Prelims Hooks

• IMD parent ministry: Ministry of Earth Sciences [S1].
• Monsoon Mission launched 2012 to develop dynamical prediction [S3].
• MMCFS = Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (coupled model) [S3].
• Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) strategy adopted operationally in 2021 [S3].
• Mission Mausam outlay: ₹2,000 crore over two years, Cabinet nod Sep 2024, phased till 2031 [S2].
• Three primary implementing institutes of Mission Mausam: IMD, IITM, NCMRWF [S2].
• Average absolute monsoon forecast error 2023–25: 1.9% of LPA [S1].
• 2024 actual SW monsoon rainfall: 108% of LPA (Above Normal) [S1].
• 2023 actual SW monsoon rainfall: 95% of LPA (Below Normal end of band) [S1].
• Forecast error band currently used by IMD: ±4% of LPA [S1].
• Mission Mausam network includes 50 DWRs, 60 radiosondes, 10 wind profilers [S2].
• MoES institutes supporting Mission Mausam: INCOIS, NCPOR, NIOT [S2].

8. Mains Relevance

• GS-I: Indian geography — monsoon, climatic phenomena.
• GS-III: Science & Technology (indigenous models, supercomputing); Agriculture (rainfed dependence); Disaster Management.
• Likely question stems:
• "Discuss the institutional and technological reforms that have improved India's monsoon forecasting accuracy in the last decade."
• "Mission Mausam aims to make India 'weather-ready and climate-smart'. Critically examine its objectives, architecture and challenges."
• "Despite improvements in seasonal forecasts, spatial and extreme-event prediction remains weak. Comment."

9. Related Topics to Study Next

• Mission Mausam — flagship MoES programme operationalising forecast upgrades [S2].
• Monsoon Mission (2012) — origin of MMCFS, dynamical modelling shift [S3].
• IMD classification of monsoon (Deficient/Normal/Excess) — definitional MCQ trap.
• El Niño / La Niña / IOD — drivers used as predictors in MMCFS.
• National Monsoon Mission supercomputers (Pratyush, Mihir) — compute backbone.
• Doppler Weather Radar network — observation infrastructure.
• PM Fasal Bima Yojana & PMKSY — policy users of monsoon forecast.
• NDMA & CDRI — downstream disaster preparedness consumers.

10. Common Errors / Trap Areas

• IMD's parent is MoES, not MoEFCC or Ministry of Agriculture.
• LPA band: Normal = 96–104%, not 95–105%; 2023's 95% sits at Below Normal boundary.
• Mission Mausam ≠ Monsoon Mission: Mausam is the 2024 ₹2,000 cr umbrella; Monsoon Mission (2012) is the older dynamical-modelling programme.
• Forecast error band tightened to ±4%; older syllabi quote ±5%.
• NCMRWF is at Noida, IITM at Pune — frequently swapped in MCQs.

11. Sources

• [S1] PARLIAMENT QUESTION: MONSOON FORECAST ACCURACY AND IMPROVEMENTS, PIB/MoES, 12 Feb 2026 — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2226887 — (tier 1)
• [S2] Mission Mausam Unveiled: ₹2,000 Crore initiative; Cabinet approval Sep 2024, PIB — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2054427 and https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2053896 — (tier 1)
• [S3] PARLIAMENT QUESTION: MONSOON FORECAST AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE / India Summer Monsoon Rainfall Forecast Verification, PIB — https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2118393 and https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2205866 — (tier 1)