PARLIAMENT QUESTION: RISE IN TEMPERATURE

1. At a Glance

• Parliament Question answered by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) on 01 April 2026 detailing projections on global heat exposure and India's adaptation machinery [1].
• Cites an Oxford University study in Nature Sustainability projecting that the share of global population exposed to extreme heat will rise from ~23% (c.2010) to ~41% by 2050, i.e., ~3.79 billion people, concentrated in South Asia, Africa, Southeast Asia [1].
• Relevant for GS-I (geography/climate), GS-III (environment, disaster management) and Prelims (IMD, HAPs, NDMA, UNFCCC commitments).

2. Why in the News

• PIB release dated 01 April 2026 under MoES titled "Parliament Question: Rise in Temperature" linking warming projections to India's Heat Action Plan (HAP) ecosystem [1].
• Follows a sequence of 2025–26 Parliament questions on heat stress, mapping of heatwaves, and climate forecasting indicating sustained legislative scrutiny [2][3][4].

3. Background & Evolution

• 2010 Ahmedabad heatwave → first city-level HAP in Asia (2013); template later replicated [5].
• IMD–NDMA collaboration institutionalised HAPs; by 2023, 23 heatwave-prone states had HAPs [6].
• India's Updated NDC (Aug 2022) under UNFCCC commits to 45% reduction in emissions intensity of GDP by 2030 (vs 2005) and 50% non-fossil cumulative electric power capacity by 2030 — adaptation co-benefits against heat extremes [7].
• Scientific literature notes 24.7% upsurge in hot days in 1976–2018 vs 1951–1975 baseline [8].

4. Core Static Facts

• Nodal Ministry: Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) — parent of IMD [1].
• Disaster framework: NDMA under Disaster Management Act, 2005 (MHA); heatwaves notified as a disaster for state-level SDRF use [6].
• Source study: University of Oxford, journal Nature Sustainability [1].
• Key numbers:
• Extreme-heat exposure: 23% (2010) → 41% (2050) of world population [1].
• Affected population by mid-century: ~3.79 billion [1].
• Warming threshold of concern: 1.5°C–2°C above pre-industrial [1].

• Heatwaves of 1998 & 2015 each killed >2,000 Indians [8].

• IMD tools: web-GIS heatwave portal with 5-day district/sub-city forecasts; colour-coded heat warnings [2].

• HAP coverage: 23 states as of 2023 [6].

5. Multi-Dimensional Analysis

Environmental

• Rising frequency/intensity of heatwaves linked to anthropogenic GHG emissions; 5-fold rise in oppressive heatwave days under 1.5°C; limiting to 1.5°C cuts oppressive heatwave likelihood by 44% relative to a 2°C world [8].
• Concurrent day–night heatwaves projected to rise ~6-fold under 2°C warming over India [8].

Social

• Disproportionate impact on outdoor workers, urban poor, elderly, women, children; Indo-Gangetic plains & coastal humid belts most exposed [1][8].
• Occupational heat-stress threatens agriculture & construction labour productivity [8].

Administrative / Governance

• Multi-agency model: MoES (IMD) for forecasting; NDMA (MHA) for response; MoHFW for health advisories; State Disaster Management Authorities execute HAPs [2][6].
• Bottleneck: HAP implementation quality varies; many plans lack vulnerability mapping and financing tags [3][4].

Geopolitical / Strategic

• India's adaptation narrative at UNFCCC COPs; updated NDC submitted Aug 2022 aligns with Paris Agreement Art. 4 [7].
• South Asia identified as a global heat-risk hotspot — diplomatic leverage for climate finance and Loss & Damage [1][7].

Scientific / Technological

• IMD's Decision Support System (DSS), Impact-Based Forecasting, and GIS heatwave portal [2].
• Research collaborations via MoES Monsoon Mission and Climate Change Programme (DST).

6. Recent Developments (last 12–18 months)

• 01 Apr 2026 — MoES Parliament reply on rise in temperature citing Oxford/Nature Sustainability projections [1].
• 2025 — Parliament questions on Impact of Heat Stress, Rising Incidents of Extreme Heat, Mapping of Heatwaves, Cities facing Double Heatwave & Extreme Rainfall [3][4].
• 2025 — IMD issued comprehensive heatwave guidance as temperatures rose across regions [2].
• 2025 — Parliament reply on Initiatives to Strengthen Climate Forecasting noting IMD modernisation [4].

7. Prelims Hooks

• Study cited in PIB release: University of Oxford, journal Nature Sustainability [1].
• Projected global population in extreme-heat zones by 2050: ~41% (~3.79 bn) [1].
• IMD is under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, NOT MoEFCC [1].
• HAPs active in 23 states (as of 2023) [6].
• India's first city HAP: Ahmedabad, 2013 [5].
• Heatwave is included in SDRF-eligible disasters under guidance of the 15th Finance Commission.
• India's updated NDC targets 45% GDP emission intensity cut by 2030 vs 2005 and 50% non-fossil installed power capacity by 2030 [7].
• Warming thresholds in PIB release: 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial [1].
• Historic heatwaves of 1998 and 2015 each caused >2,000 deaths in India [8].
• Hot-day occurrences in India rose 24.7% in 1976–2018 vs 1951–1975 [8].
• IMD's GIS heatwave portal offers 5-day district-level forecasts [2].
• Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal: well below 2°C, pursuing 1.5°C (Article 2) [7].

8. Mains Relevance

• GS-I — Geography: Climatology, changes in critical geographical features.
• GS-III — Environment & Disaster Management: Climate change, conservation, disaster management.
• Probable stems: 1. "Heatwaves are emerging as India's silent disaster." Examine the institutional preparedness and suggest reforms. (GS-III, 250 words) 2. Critically analyse how India's Heat Action Plans address vulnerabilities of informal workers and urban poor. (GS-III) 3. Discuss the implications of breaching the 1.5°C threshold for South Asia, with reference to India's NDC and adaptation strategy. (GS-III)

9. Related Topics to Study Next

• Heat Action Plans (HAPs) — operational backbone for state response [6].
• National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) & 8 missions — overarching framework.
• India's Updated NDC (2022) — quantitative climate commitments [7].
• IPCC AR6 WG-I/II findings — scientific basis for 1.5°C/2°C thresholds.
• Disaster Management Act, 2005 & NDMA — institutional architecture [6].
• Urban Heat Island effect & Smart Cities Mission — urban adaptation.
• MGNREGA heat-related work-hour advisories — labour adaptation.
• Loss & Damage Fund (COP27/COP28) — climate finance linkage.

10. Common Errors / Trap Areas

• Ministry confusion: IMD is under MoES, not MoEFCC; HAP coordination under NDMA/MHA, not MoES alone [1][6].
• Study attribution: PIB cites Oxford + Nature Sustainability, not IPCC or WMO [1].
• HAP count: 23 states with HAPs (not 23 cities) [6].
• Heatwave as 'notified disaster': Centre has not declared it a notified disaster under DM Act; states use SDRF as per 15th FC norms — frequently asked tricky point.
• NDC numbers: 45% emission intensity of GDP (not absolute emissions) reduction by 2030 [7].